Who Is Favored To Win The Presidency

• Who Is Going To Win The Us Presidency
• Who Is Going To Win The Presidential Debate
• Who Is Really Going To Win The Presidency

I do want to say a few things about these odds. I believe it is crazy to have Pence and Nikki Haley so close to the top. Nikki Haley has no constituency besides the swamp in Washington D.C. Former Vice President Mike Pence has a bigger constituency than Nikki Haley but would need an endorsement from Trump to win. If Trump runs he is the. In the throes of Election Night, a few betting markets now are starting to indicate incumbent President Donald Trump could be a favorite to win a second term in the White House in the presidential. The two lead candidates fighting it out to win the 2020 presidency are Democrat challenger Joe Biden and the current President of the United States. Trump’s odds are 21/10, giving him a.

Faux News has been trying to their best all night to knock down any chances of Trump winning reelection. Between their biased “probably arrows” to their constant CNN like cackling on the air might give you the false impression that Biden is headed for an easy win tonight. Turns out that’s not the case! The betting odds, which favored Biden at least 2-1 before polls closed have now totally flipped, with Trump now favored to win a second term!

BREAKING:

Donald Trump is the betting favorite to win the 2020 US Presidential Election for the first time since September 2nd. #ElectionDay

Updated odds (per Bovada):

Donald Trump -130
Joe Biden EVEN

— Odds Shark (@OddsShark) November 4, 2020

Trump is now odds on to win in the betting markets. The pollsters could be wrong again.

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) November 4, 2020

Trump is now favored in the betting markets to win. Buckle up. I told you it was going to be a wild night. https://t.co/3c5WAbp5fk

Who Is Going To Win The Us Presidency

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) November 4, 2020

MASSIVE shift in the betting odds. President Trump now the favorite pic.twitter.com/J10IyXMUQ3

Who Is Going To Win The Presidential Debate

— Bongino Report (@BonginoReport) November 4, 2020

Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

Who Is Really Going To Win The Presidency

• According to our final presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and a lot of Biden’s chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in the Keystone State. He leads Trump there by about 5 points in our polling average, but it’s not as large a margin as Biden might like. Last week, we gamed out what would happen if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin. (TL;DR there’s no clear Plan B for Biden.) Want to run through your own hypothetical scenarios? You now can with our interactive forecast that lets you explore the ways each candidate could win. We’re hoping to use this tool ourselves on election night to better understand Biden and Trump’s paths to victory, especially if the outstanding vote takes a while to be counted.
• Unless Trump or Biden has a really good night on Nov. 3, it’s pretty unlikely, though, that either of them will hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win by the end of the night. That doesn’t necessarily mean, though, that we won’t have a pretty good idea of who won. It’s all going to come down to how close some of the key battleground races are and whether a representative share of the vote can be reported, which won’t always be possible given the challenges of the pandemic. We’re tracking when we expect results in every state.