Vegas Odds Democratic Nomination

Political betting has become a massive market for online betting sites in recent years. Trump’s unprecedented upset of Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election was a catalyst for political betting’s foray into the online gambling mainstream.

Odds on the Democrat Nominee for the 2020 Election according to Bovada Sportsbook. Updated on July 20, 2020. US Presidential Election 2020 - Democratic Candidate Joe Biden -2500 Hillary Clinton +1600 Michelle Obama +2500 Andrew Cuomo +2800. Odds on the Democrat Nominee for the 2020 Election according to Bovada Sportsbook. Updated on June 28, 2020. Odds on the Democrat Nominee for the 2024 Election according to Bovada Sportsbook Updated on January 5, 2021 US Presidential Election 2024 - Democratic Candidate.

• Harris has +450 odds (18.2 percent implied probability) to win the 2024 U.S. Election, according to the latest presidential election odds, with Biden just behind her at +550 to win a second term. Having her as the favorite at Bovada may seem like a controversial choice given she is Biden’s vice-president.
• Political betting may not be offered in the United States yet, but bookmakers in Europe are all over the Democratic race for the nomination. There are now betting odds listed for every Super Tuesday state (which is next Tuesday), with Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg and the rest of the field jockeying for delegates in what continues to be an unpredictable race.
• Per Vegas oddsmakers, Clinton +700 ($100 wins $700) has the best chance of replacing Biden as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee. President Trump’s reelection odds remain favored at -120 ($120 wins $100), based on the 2020 political futures.

Just about all of the top online betting sites have been keeping tabs on the latest developments ahead of the highly-anticipated 2020 United States election, which is set for Tuesday, November 3rd. Here’s everything you need to know about the best political betting sites offering Democratic party odds, as well as a dive into the Democratic Party as a whole. To start things off, we have included a list of best sites for Democratic party betting below.

The Democratic Party is the oldest active political party in the world. The party was founded back in 1828 by supporters of Andrew Jackson. Interestingly enough, the original iteration of the Democratic Party stood for a lot of things the modern-day party starkly opposes.

Back then, the party was in favor of things like limited government, slavery, and state sovereignty. However, things changed dramatically when Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt introduced his New Deal coalition in the 1930s. Since then, the party has gradually shifted toward the left, while the rival Republican Party has done an about-face of its own. The Republican Party originated supporting classic liberal policies, but it is now much more conservative than the Democratic Party.

Nowadays, the Democrats are the ones supporting liberalism. Some of the more noteworthy platforms taken by the Democratic Party as we know it today are protections for the environment, universal healthcare for all Americans, LGBT rights, and more stringent gun restrictions.

15 Democrats have won the presidency since the party’s inception. The first was Jackson in 1829, and the most recent was Barack Obama, who served from 2009 until 2017. 19 Republicans have been elected to the highest post in the land in a shorter period of time, so betting on Democrats to win the White House hasn’t been the most profitable move for political bettors over the years.

Things could be swinging in their favor, though. The Democrats regained a majority in the House of Representatives in 2018, and most political betting sites have the presumptive Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, favored to beat Republican Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

What Makes a Good Online Political Betting Site?

Democratic Party Betting Coverage

You’ll have a hard time betting on the election online if your site doesn’t take bets on politics. Betting on American politics has been popular in the United Kingdom for quite some time, and the majority of major offshore betting sites carry odds on the world of politics, too.

If you’re using a betting operator based in the US, you won’t find Democratic nominee betting odds or any US political odds. That’s because American betting providers are not allowed to take bets on US politics by law. So, if you live in the United States, you’ll have to use an offshore operator if you want to bet on who wins the 2020 presidential election.

Attractive Bonus Offers

One aspect of betting real money on Democratic candidates online that you won’t find at your local casino is bonuses. Political betting sites know you have no shortage of options when it comes to gambling online. So, they try to separate themselves from the competition by offering more advantageous bonus offers than others might. Many of them even offer you the chance to double your bankroll for free simply by signing up and making your first deposit.

Not all bonuses are the same, which is why taking the time to shop around in search of the most favorable bonus offer will be worth your while.

Banking Options

Your local grocery store accepts a number of different payment options, so why shouldn’t your online Democratic party betting provider do the same? Sites with the best Democrat betting odds accept a variety of payment methods for your convenience, and you can work your way around certain legal limitations. Some banks won’t allow customers to make financial transactions with betting entities. So, you may need a workaround if you want to make a deposit and bet on politics online.

That’s why sites accept cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin, or e-wallets, such as PayPal, as alternative banking options. They’ll still accept most major credit cards, as well, so you should have no trouble finding a deposit method that suits what you’re looking for.

Betting on the Democratic Party

Primaries

Before the Democrats officially nominate a presidential candidate, all candidates must first go through the nomination process. The party formally organizes electoral contests in all 50 states, Washington DC, and US territories. The 2020 Democratic nomination process was scheduled to run from February of ’20 until August.

The vast majority of states use a primary in order to determine how many delegates each candidate will receive. Because the primary process wasn’t outlined in the US Constitution, it has been left up to the parties to determine how to conduct these procedures.

A primary is simple. The candidate that receives the most votes will receive the most delegates from a given state. The candidate that receives a plurality of delegates from all states, territories, and jurisdictions mathematically clinches the party’s presidential nomination. In 2020, the nominee would have to receive at least 1,991 delegates to earn the nomination. Biden accomplished the feat in early June.

Primaries tend to be more predictable than caucuses. Caucuses tend to be far less organized, which can lead to some chaos, as we saw at the 2020 Iowa caucus. The results for the Iowa caucus weren’t available for several days as a result of issues with vote reporting.

Caucuses

At a primary, voters simply have to show up at a polling place, cast their vote, and leave. A caucus is a different, much more involved process. At a caucus, voters meet and split into groups that include other voters that plan to support the same candidate. They will then all cast votes for that candidate, while other groups will do the same.

If a certain candidate doesn’t meet a certain threshold in terms of votes, they are essentially eliminated from receiving further consideration. So, supporters of candidates that don’t achieve viability are given the choice to either leave or branch off into a different group in order to support a different viable candidate.

At the aforementioned 2020 Iowa caucus, Pete Buttigieg won 14 delegates, while Bernie Sanders took 12. This despite the fact that Sanders actually earned a higher percentage of the overall popular vote. Biden, whose campaign was floundering at the time, earned the fourth-most delegates.

The number of states that use the caucus system has been dipping in recent years. Hawaii, Kansas, and Maine were among the states to adopt the primary system for the first time in 2020. After the debacle in Iowa, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that state follow suit next time around. Nevada, Wyoming, and North Dakota are the only other states that still use the caucus system.

Futures Bets

The most common type of political wager is a futures bet on how a race will pan out. For example, there have been odds on who will win the 2020 election since the 2016 election ended. Sites with the best Democrat betting odds have been keeping track of the latest happenings and updating their futures odds accordingly.

While the Democratic nominee betting odds for Joe Biden might not be currently valuable, they could change at any point. As recently as November, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren was a +110 favorite to earn the nomination. In March, Sanders was given minus-money odds to do so at certain sites.

Obviously, there is value to be had in the other political odds besides the Democratic nominee odds given the volatility in the current political climate. Trump pulled the upset in 2016 despite some British bookmakers having given him +400 odds to do so on Election Day.

With Biden having all but wrapped up the nomination, most Democratic Party betting sites are now focused on whom he may choose to serve as his vice president. Futures Democratic betting odds on vice presidential candidates are commonly listed like this:

Basics for Online Betting on the Democratic Party

Plenty of States and Cities Are Reliably Blue

Despite the Democratic Party’s origins in the Deep South, the southeastern US is territory that Republicans tend to dominate nowadays. While there are a couple of swing states in the southeast in Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, Democrats these days tend to fare well in urban areas.

The vast majority of major US cities have Democratic mayors. Of the 50 biggest cities in the country, 35 currently have Democratic mayors. That includes New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, and Philadelphia, which just happen to be the six biggest cities in terms of population in the US.

States like California, New York, Massachusetts, Washington, Oregon, and New Jersey have also reliably voted in favor of Democrats in recent presidential elections. So, if you’re betting real money on Democratic candidates online in 2020, keep in mind that certain states almost always support Democrats.

Electoral College Betting

You can use some of the information listed above to help you place winning bets on Electoral College outcomes. Some political betting sites are offering props on which candidates will take certain states in the 2020 presidential election.

States like California and New York that almost always vote Democrat don’t offer much value. The Democratic candidate is listed at -2000 to win California, and -2500 to take New York. However, value can be found in certain swing states that could be swinging to the left after going in Trump’s favor in 2016.

States like North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia are shaping up to be potential toss-ups in the general election. If you’re looking for prop bets that could be worth your while, keep an eye on Electoral College odds as we get closer to Election Day.

Democratic National Convention

The 2020 Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled to be held in Milwaukee in July. However, the nation’s sweeping health crisis forced Democrats to postpone the convention until August, at the earliest. Losing Wisconsin to Trump in 2016 was essentially the nail in the coffin for the Democratic Party. So, it’s no surprise that they have opted to hold the upcoming convention in the state in an attempt to drum up some local momentum.

The Democratic National Convention is essentially a rally designed to celebrate the official nomination process. The 2020 version was originally slated for July 13 through 16, but it is now on the calendar for August 17 through 20. Whether the event will be held at all remains to be seen, considering thousands of people are expected to flock to Milwaukee.

Biden is widely expected to be unveiled as the party’s official nominee, while his preferred VP candidate is still unknown. As of now, you can bet on whether the Democratic Convention will be held in Milwaukee as planned, or whether the Democrats will have to hold the event virtually.

Bettors can also wager on who Biden will tap as his running mate at Democratic party betting sites, as mentioned above.

Will Democrats Win in 2020?

The 2016 election was a catastrophic failure for the Democratic Party. Not only did Trump and the Republicans take the White House, but Republicans were also able to maintain their majorities in both houses of Congress.

In the 2018 mid-terms, Democrats were able to battle back to seize a majority in the House of Representatives, which led directly to Trump’s impeachment in late 2019. However, the Republican-led Senate voted to acquit Trump of any wrongdoing at his impeachment trial, which kept him in office.

Trump has been a betting favorite to win re-election since 2020 odds opened, but the tide has recently changed. As of this writing, some betting sites have Biden as high as a -140 favorite to win the White House back for the Democrats, as Trump’s domestic approval rating continues to sink.

Because the US presidential election betting odds are constantly changing, you must keep up with the current events that are taking place in the political world. A good place to start would be our political betting blogs below.

Whether Trump is able to turn the tide and regain momentum by the time November rolls around remains to be seen. All bookmakers in the UK have now listed Biden as the favorite to win the election as well.

You can also bet on which party will hold the majority in either house of Congress after the election. Democrats are sizable favorites to hold their majority in the House, while the Senate is looking like a 50-50 proposition. Republicans essentially hold a 53-47 edge as things stand now, though a number of Republican candidates are thought to be vulnerable.

Republicans are still slight favorites to hold the majority in the Senate, but Trump’s dwindling approval numbers may not help those Republicans vying to stay in power.

In July 2020, the Democratic Party will choose a candidate to represent them in the Presidential Election, presumably against the incumbent Donald Trump. If they’re somehow able to get him out of office before then, that’d be a big win for the left which would drastically alter the stakes and tone of the primaries.

As it stands, with the President in office as expected, a central theme in choosing a ticket worthy of taking over the White House will be, “Who can beat Trump?”

Considering the current state of the Democrats, with the old guard butting heads with the rise of the Progressives, the answer to that question may not be the same as “Who can win these Democratic primaries?” We’ve seen the party’s power structure misdiagnose how to defeat the controversial Republican incumbent before.

Whichever challenger emerges will have first to defeat a sizable field. With an influx of young progressive candidates mixed with some establishment figures and the return of Bernie Sanders, the 2020 Democratic Primary promises to be some grade-A political drama. Let’s find some solid gambling value to make it profitable as well.

Finding the Perfect Opponent for Trump

For the better part of four years now, the political establishment in both parties has been generally baffled by Donald Trump’s winning 2016 campaign. The victory now appears to be part of a broader global populist trend that may give us some insight into how 2020’s festivities will play out as well.

Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of it all is that the left still doesn’t seem to comprehend what went wrong in the first place. And yelling about Russia for Republican two years now hasn’t done much to impact Trump and his now-dug-in base.

For the Democrats to steal back the White House, they need to find a way to attract all of those so-called “Bernie Bros” that abandoned the party after feeling robbed in the 2016 primaries by Hillary Clinton and the establishment party officials.

And how much are they willing to sacrifice to win those voters anyway? Will the Dems be ready to surrender control to the growing Progressive wing of the party that can tap into some of that Sanders’ magic? Or, will they try to sneak-in an establishment figure, hoping to do just enough to scoop up the handful of Bernie’s fans they need for the electoral?

Howard Schultz

One wildcard out there, who may end up playing a crucial role in deciding which Democratic candidate is “electable” is the entrepreneur and two-time Starbucks Chairman and CEO — Howard Schultz. The coffee magnate has been threatening to run as an independent if some of the more socialist voices on the left come into power.

I use the term “threat” because the widespread fear in left-leaning circles is that his “socially-liberal, fiscally-conservative” message will pull more support away from the Democratic nominee than it will from Trump on election day. Immediately upon announcing his intentions to run, some of the louder and more prominent voices on the left began to directly and aggressively attack Schultz – going so far as to call for boycotts of Starbucks.

So, Howard will be hanging over everyone’s head during the primaries. “Electability” is already a hot topic amongst the Dems, and one of the primary concerns that seem to come up when discussing candidates like Harris, Gabbert, O’Rourke, and Sanders.

If the party truly believes any Progressive nominee will prompt his entry into the race – thus, splitting the left’s vote and handing the Presidency to Trump – they may feel more inclined to push “safer” insiders like Joe Biden.

However, I’m not sure the Democrats are correct in their assertion that Schultz running would hurt their chances at taking the White House. I suspect they’re drastically underrating how many votes his message could steal away from Trump and overrating how many Dems would be tempted to go outside the party.

Regardless, nothing I’ve seen from the movers-and-shakers on the left tells me that they understand or know how to combat Trump. Their fear of Schultz makes this abundantly apparent.

Voting Blocs

The political types behind the scenes like to break voters down into specific blocs who they then tailor specific messages towards. Last election, Hillary’s people focused on the Democratic loyalists, Hispanics, and the Black vote while ignoring the younger and further left-leaning voices.

Well, the traditional analysts and part members believe the “Bernie Bros” were more “left-leaning” or socialist anyway – I’m not so sure they’ve got that part right.

I’ve seen countless articles, videos, and interviews discussing Bernie Sanders’ 2016 run and why so many of his supporters refused to cast their vote for Hillary after her team and the Democratic Party successfully stole the primaries.

The left loves to blame this group of voters for being racist or sexist or for having been fooled by Russian operatives. For the most part, this is all BS, and remarkably tone-deaf. They really can’t see how fed-up people are, and for that reason, they are in denial of the “Outsider” voting bloc.

For example, even FiveThirtyEight.com — probably the most reliable mainstream political analysts around these days – broke the five Democratic voting blocs down like so:

1. Party Loyalists
2. The Left
3. Millennials and Friends
4. Black Voters
5. Hispanic and Asian Voters

In a recent article about these different groups, Nate Silver highlights a candidate’s job to capture a coalition of voters from as many of these blocs as possible. That part’s obvious, but I don’t think he’s defining these various sub-sections of the party accurately – at least in a couple of cases.

Silver mentions throughout the article how a large number of “the Left” didn’t make the jump from Sanders to Hillary, believing these more Progressive voters either stayed home or went with a third-party candidate. He also mentions how the younger members of the “Millennials and Friends” and Black voters were turned off from Hillary as well.

If I were breaking down the Democratic masses to best design a campaign, I think my categories would look something closer to this:

1. Party Loyalists
2. Progressives / Far Left
3. Outsiders / Idealists
4. Students
5. Identity Groups

It’s that third group that I suspect elected Donald Trump. Of the 26% of Bernie Bros who didn’t cast a vote for Hillary, 12% threw their support behind the current President. What that figure doesn’t account for are all the similarly-minded citizens who may not have been given the option to participate in the primaries or who are registered Republicans.

A massive portion of Sanders’s supporters wasn’t so passionately behind him because they love socialism and higher taxed; they thought he was honest and discussing ideas that most career politicians won’t touch. They want to hear people talking truthfully about campaign finance reform, taxes on the rich, and how our government seems to solely exist for the benefit of massive international corporations.

If you’re a Democrat, you probably just muttered something along the lines of, “well, if they wanted honesty how could they vote for the biggest lying, stealing, sexist, racist, person to ever live?!?” Easy.

After watching the candidate they loved cheated out of the race by the establishment, they decided that any outsider would do. Maybe Trump is a bad guy, but they’d rather throw that human Molotov cocktail at Capitol Hill – the guy who doesn’t look or sound like any of the “real” politicians – than settle for yet another member of the political elite.

It wasn’t that they didn’t want a woman president. It wasn’t that they were racist. They weren’t even fooled and manipulated by the Russian boogeymen. They want actual change, and I suspect they’ll be looking for it again this year – from someone other than Bernie. More on that later.

Vegas Odds Democratic Nomination

Game-Changing Scenarios

I’m writing this article way too early; so much is going to happen between now and those first few primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire. Some of the front-runners we’re looking at as legit contenders right now won’t even make it on the first ballots. Scandals will arise, campaigns will make fatal tactical errors, there will be debate flubs, and a long-shot or two will significantly outperform early projections.

More than anything: Deals will be made. Not everybody that has announced their intention to run wants to be President. More than a handful are hoping to parlay a 2020 campaign into greater prominence on the national stage, negotiate an appointment for themselves, or attach themselves to the ticket.

Looking at the pool of candidates, there are some exciting combinations if a few of the favorites are open to being the Vice President. If the primaries are a close-fought and bitter battle to the end, the Democrats don’t have a prayer of beating Trump in November 2020. But, if a team or two forms early, and we get the right arrangement of options, the left might end their four-year nightmare after-all.

For instance, I think Joe Bidden will need a VP that the party can sell to Bernie Bros. That means it’ll have to be someone progressive that can retain enough of them without causing too much of a fuss for the pro-war, corporatist, establishment Dems.

Maybe an Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, or Corey Booker – progressives who may be willing to compromise their ideas to advance their careers, but are still trusted by most of the far left.

All of the progressive candidates could become a serious presidential contender if anyone could talk Bernie into playing a sort of “sage mentor” role as their Vice President. Whether he backed Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, or someone like Beto O’Rourke, that candidate would immediately re-ignite the passion Sanders’s 2016 run inspired – something I don’t think he can do again on his own.

Similarly, it’s fathomable that Bernie Sanders will talk one of the other candidates into being his VP and announcing the formation fairly early-on. He’ll probably need someone closer to center if he wants the Democratic machine to get out of his way and bless the nomination; Tim Ryan, Corey Booker, Kamala Harris, and Amy Klobuchar are all decent choices.

Any of these big-name candidates either combining as a ticket or throwing their support behind one of their opponents could ultimately decide the Democratic Primary. Having to predict the most likely scenarios are undoubtedly a challenge, but that’s why these futures bets from so far out pay so well.

The Major Players

Bernie Sanders (+900)

Bernie Sanders’s 2016 bid to be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States changed the party for the foreseeable future. He popularized socialism in a way other progressive politicians — like Elizabeth Warren, for example — had yet to do, leading to a new more aggressively liberal movement within the ranks of the Dems.

Approaching 2020, the party has had to move further left – with a whole lot’a candidates running without corporate donors or SuperPAC money, while openly discussing things like Medicare-for-all, taxing the wealthy, free college, and other anxiety-inducing topics for billionaires.

Considering he was so close to winning the nomination last time, you’d think a +900-betting line would be appealing; but I’m staying far away. It’s impossible to quantify, but I’d guess a decent amount of the intensity around Bernie had to do with who he opposed.

Against Hillary Clinton, the contrast was severe. With enormous swathes of the country having never recovered from the 2008 financial collapse, people are getting tired of the usual “promise you everything, then sell everyone out to corporate and monied interests” politicians who dominate the upper echelons of power in the States.

A candidate came along that wanted to make a few decisions that would actually benefit the regular people, and everybody flipped. All he had to do was be straightforward about corporations and Wall Street, and not be her, and he was golden.

Now, the people at the top – in both parties – obviously don’t want to change the system to the extent that some of these progressives are talking. But they also can’t be too apparent in showing the citizens that they’re not going to be allowed to make any of the changes being discussed.

Bernie was cheated at every turn in 2016, which backfired. For 2020, the party bosses are either more prepared or way luckier. Instead of facing a single pro-big pharma/war/banker/corporation, establishment Democrat, they’ve compiled a field that effectively eliminates every advantage he had.

Only Joe Biden can be attacked in the same manner as Clinton was in 2016; the rest of his significant competitors are his own creation, in a sense. The field of viable progressive candidates includes Tulsi Gabbard, Sherrod Brown, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Beto O’Rourke — as well as establishment-Dems-in-progressive-clothing, like Corey Booker.

Sanders already struggled to capture the black vote – which ended up being the difference in last election’s primaries. He does well with the younger voters in minority blocs, but not the older members. Harris and Booker will likely take a sizable portion of his supporters in these camps.

Tulsi Gabbard will be able to outflank Bernie to the left. I suspect she will paint him as a sellout, using the candidate’s Venezuela opinions as proof. Beto represents a younger, less grumpy image of progressivism and is the only Democrat with the Obama-like potential to show up and blitzkrieg the entire field for the nomination out of nowhere.

Then there’s Elizabeth Warren. Warren has been sharing a similar message as Sanders for years now, but like 60% of Democratic voters, she’s a woman. The perfect compromise between Hillary and Bernie, in a weird way. What makes Elizabeth uniquely dangerous is that she’s writing and presenting actual policies to go along with her campaign.

Instead of merely mentioning a tax plan, for example, she’s drawing up the details and releasing them to the public. This forces her opponents to do the same. When you’re promising some of the things Bernie may need to – especially if forced to “out-liberal” some of his competition – it becomes much more challenging when you’re forced to create concrete written proposals to go along with them.

Not only do I not see Bernie recreating 2016’s success, I think he puts an end to campaign after Super Tuesday. Hopefully, he can then join another ticket as VP – although, I doubt that’s an option in his mind.

Joe Biden (+500)

I’m just going to tell you right now; at +500, I absolutely love this line and will 100% be taking heavy action on these odds. If the field of candidates stays as large as expected and continues to include multiple far-left (relative to typical US politics) options to compete with Bernie, Joe can slide into this nomination without being anyone’s first choice.

In fact, polls shared by FiveThirtyEight.com show that no matter who a voter’s first choice may be, either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders are always their second favorite. As the horde of progressives cannibalize themselves – or force each other so far left that it freaks out the Democratic base — Biden has an ideal opportunity to steal this thing.

He has the Obama recommendation, which – as a white male – may make him more palatable to minority voters (though the party may not worry as much about them, assuming anti-Trump sentiments are enough). Besides his experience as VP, I also think Joe benefits from having gone away and not run the last election. Now, voters who miss the Obama days will see Biden as a welcome return to those days.

Most importantly, the former Vice President has the entire establishment Democratic machine behind him. That’s a massive advantage, especially concerning fund-raising.

Kamala Harris (+300)

Kamala Harris is one of the favorites to win the nomination this far out. At +300 odds, she presents the worst betting value among the real contenders. While she checks off some fairly significant boxes, I also see a few red flags that could sabotage her campaign within the exact voting blocs to which she appeals.

For example, she’s a mixed-race minority woman. There’s a sizable piece of the Democratic voters that will feel a strong connection to her. But what percentage of those blocs will look past the way she had parents arrested and prosecuted for their children’s truancy. How many low-income single mothers would be disproportionately impacted by such a policy?

There are other votes and comments throughout her political career that will cause similar controversies. In San Francisco, she backed legislation that resulted in ICE being notified whenever undocumented juveniles were arrested, for instance.

She’s also been caught in lies trying to appeal to younger voters and minorities. Harris claimed to smoke weed in college, which seems inconsistent with her morals as a tough-on-crime prosecutor. She went further by saying she liked listening to Tupac or Snoop Dogg when this supposed smoking happened, despite graduating from law school in 1989 before either of them had ever released an album.

Harris doesn’t have the name to take the establishment vote away from Biden and doesn’t have the record to hold off the Progressive movement. I see her as a prime candidate for a cabinet position, however; possibly even as the Vice President.

Elizabeth Warren (+800)

Elizabeth Warren isn’t expected to make too much noise as a Presidential candidate in 2020, but I see some serious spoiler potential in her. Of all the candidates in the Democratic primaries, she’s the only choice on which I’ve already placed a bet. Warren may seem too liberal in her policies to win-it-all on the surface, but I think she has shown a willingness to compromise and play the game in a way that won’t give the establishment elite too much pause.

If Elizabeth can’t make the necessary waves alone, she’d make a game-changing addition to another candidate’s ticket. Such a skillful policy-maker is going to play a central role in deciding the nomination, whether she makes it to the convention or not.

Corey Booker (+1200)

There’s no result that would shock me with regards to Corey Booker in 2020. A career-ending scandal seems every bit as within the realm of possibility as the Presidential nomination, which is probably the sign of a great politician. Booker has the charisma and looks, plus a valuable slate of endorsements from other Democrats backing his nomination.

If there’s anything that could derail the New Jersey Senator, it’s his connection to unpopular big money lobbies. Senator Booker is lumping himself in with the progressives for this run, but his financial ties to Big Pharma, Wall Street, and the banks should blow up in his face before Super Tuesday.

Which gets to the heart of the matter that the Democrats are facing. With the influx of Bernie socialists making noise in the party, some of their most electable candidates aren’t far left enough to win the primaries. But the candidates that can inspire the Bernie Bros to come out again in full force aren’t as likely to perform well in the general election.

Still, at +1200 odds, this is too good a bet to pass up. Corey Booker may not be the favorite, but he has the right skills, comes from an advantageous state, and has the right connections to surprise some people and make a run at the White House.

Tulsi Gabbard (+900)

In early-2019, including Tulsi Gabbard in the” Major Players” section will be seen as absurd. Since her announcement, she’s been tagged as the newest “Russian shill” for having the nerve to visit Syria and inspect the situation for herself.

Well, it’s not that she went to Syria, it’s that she came back and told the US that they’re leaders were actually arming the terrorists over there, and it was them – not Assad – who are destroying the country and committing human rights violations.

Today, just about every American will tell you that going into Iraq was a mistake and many will claim to have known so all along; but dare to denounce one of these occupations when it’s getting ramped up or about to start and your fellow citizens will tear you to pieces as a traitor, sympathizer, or worse.

So, now she’s part of the neo-McCarthyist “Russian Agenda” despite being the only candidate from either party who actually served in our nation’s armed forces. Tulsi will never be allowed to run for president.

She’s already under attack from the talking heads owned by the military-industrial sector, the Israeli lobby, and the bankers/elite — plus their hordes of online minions. We’re even seeing Facebook arbitrarily delete her campaign posts and obstruct people sharing them. Only Trump has ever been able to overcome this amount of pressure – and he might have gotten a little help.

The very fact that Tulsi can’t win and will be mistreated along the way is precisely why I think she’ll be this year’s Bernie Sanders. She is stating some honest, unpopular facts about how this country conducts its foreign policy. Facts that make you unelectable in the current system, but inspire those Outsider voters who were drawn to 2008-Obama, 2012-Ron Paul, 2016-Bernie Sanders, and in some cases – Donald Trump.

Look for Gabbard to significantly outperform her early polling numbers, finishing in third or fourth in those first two or three primaries. I see her calling out Bernie Sanders – and the other Progressives – for comments seemingly in support of intervention in Venezuela.

When she highlights all of the ways in which it’s the same as Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, Bernie will likely be seen as compromised by his conspiracy-fearing base. Tulsi becomes the trusted truth-teller from that point on.

From there, the momentum builds, more money comes in, and the party officials turn to shadier and shadier tactics to derail the candidate. They better be more subtle in 2020 or those Outsiders will flee to Trump — in even larger numbers this time — out of spite,

The Interesting Long-Shots

Beto O’Rourke (+350)

If my prediction about Tulsi Gabbard becoming this year’s Bernie Sanders is off, it’ll be because Beto O’Rourke took up the mantle instead. The Texas congressman is still deciding whether to challenge for Republican Senator John Cornyn’s senate seat or the Democratic presidential nomination, but he’ll probably announce in the near future.

Personally, I’d like to see O’Rourke run for the Senate seat and delay entering the presidential race for now. The Democratic field is too crowded and the party too divided at the moment to realistically mount the challenge that a politician this special deserves.

The Spanish-speaking congressman will draw tons of support from the Hispanic community whenever he does run. However, Trump’s wall and general attitude towards Mexico has already given the Democrats the Latino vote. So, why waste one of his more significant advantages on a candidate against whom it’s not needed?

Of course, he does have that rare Obama-like magic that could separate him from the other Dems if he wants to go for it all this early. It wasn’t enough to steal Ted Cruz’s seat during the 2018 mid-terms, but Beto’s star has only risen since then.

Vegas Odds For Democratic Nomination 2020

Regardless, +350 isn’t a great line for an outsider candidate. This is a politician who doesn’t take corporate donors or PAC money; they’re always going to face an uphill battle to the White House. At +800 or so, I’d be much more excited about betting Beto.

Amy Klobuchar (+1000)

Amy Klobuchar looks like a viable candidate on paper, but she’s going to have a rough primary. The Senator is from Minnesota, a state the Democrats desperately need to protect, in a region that the Republicans very recently stole from the left. She’s also made a career of pulling support from both the left and right, which makes her appealing as well.

However, she’s going to run into some possibly sexist tropes that may hurt her standing with progressives. Klobuchar has a reputation for being an exceptionally cruel boss to staffers. Worse, this can be substantiated by her having the highest staff turnover of almost any Senator in Washington.

Furthermore, the Minnesota Senator is a bit more hesitant to accept some of the more radical ideas coming from the left, such as the Green New Deal. While I think her centrist sensibilities may serve her well in the general election, I don’t see how she pulls away from the pack in the primaries.

Sherrod Brown (+1100)

Sherrod Brown is leaning towards throwing his hat into the ring, but I don’t think he’s a real threat to win the White House. If the bookmakers would offer such odds, I’d love to bet on the Ohio senator either being tapped as the eventual Vice-Presidential nominee. He can carry an immensely important state for his ticket, so he’ll be a player in these elections, even if he’s not top billing.

Julian Castro (+2000)

Julian Castro will eventually make an excellent candidate, but 2020 isn’t the year. As the former secretary of Housing and Urban Development, he has some vital experience to draw from and a tacit endorsement from Obama, who appointed him.

Although, you have to wonder if all the new Cold War Russia stuff that’s getting dredged back up in the public consciousness if Castro’s last name will remind people of the Cuban missile crisis. I mean – it’s completely absurd, but so is the American public. They’ve been chasing Russians in their dreams for a couple of years now, so anything is possible.

Hillary Clinton (+1600)

At +1600 odds, you have to put a couple of bucks on Hillary Clinton, just in case. So far, Clinton has said she’s not running, but I’m not buying it. Should she decide to take one last shot at the White House, it’ll be much later in the primaries – and only if there isn’t a viable Democrat, that’s pulling away from the rest. At this age, she won’t want another tense primary wearing her out before dealing with Trump.

Seriously though, who has more shady connections and support from high places than Hillary Clinton? I recently watched a video on her body language and came away convinced that she’s gearing up for a rematch. Her team just needs things to break the right way in the early states. If Biden stumbles early, it drastically improves the odds of Clinton showing up.

Favorite 2020 Democratic Primary Wagers

Las Vegas Odds Democratic Nomination

Again, It’s way too early to know with any certainty how the Democratic primaries will eventually play out. There are so many moving pieces at this stage in the game and so many variables that could change the entire race in an instant. Trump could be impeached or primaried; scandals could erupt, and deals will be made that change the complexion of the field of candidates.

With what limited information we currently have and considering the opinions I’ve shared above, here are my favorite wagers for the 2020 Democratic primaries:

Vegas Odds Democratic Nomination

• Joe Biden: $200 @ +500 to win $1000
• Elizabeth Warren: $100 @ +800 to win $800
• Corey Booker: $50 @ +1200 to win $600
• Hillary Clinton: $50 @ +1600 to win $800

Vegas Odds To Win Democratic Nomination

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